Industrial Metals Update European steel prices to remain high for some time yet We expect European steel prices to remain elevated this year given sharply higher production costs and disruption caused by lower imports from Russia and Ukraine. That said, prices should ease back... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update High energy prices could pull plug on metals supply The high cost of energy will continue to support metals prices due to the energy-intensive nature of metal refining. If energy prices continue to climb and power rationing is introduced, we expect... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Overview China’s PMIs point to subdued demand China’s PMIs ticked up a little in February, but the big picture is that economic growth remains lacklustre in part owing to measures to contain COVID-19. The subdued demand picture confirms that the... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Sanctions on Russia to keep nickel price elevated Restrictions on Russian trade will probably lead to lower nickel supply and keep prices elevated. As a result, we have raised our nickel price forecast, despite a relatively subdued outlook for demand... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Overview How large are risk premiums in commodity prices? Our estimates suggest that risk premiums are currently adding around 40% to commodity prices. This suggests that commodity prices could fall a long way whenever concerns over the Russia-Ukraine... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Overview The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices still have room to fall The recent agreement between the US and Japan will allow the majority of Japan’s steel exports to enter the US without levies. We expect this increased supply will combine with slower growth in demand... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s refined output to remain strong China’s refined metals output mostly rose in 2021, despite power rationing in Q4. We expect output growth to continue in 2022, which is a factor underpinning our view that metals prices will fall. 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022 While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Drawdown in stocks to reverse in 2022 Exchange stocks of base metals have fallen this year, as supply was interrupted by power rationing in China as well as the ongoing effects of COVID-19. However, now that power restrictions have been... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices still set for a downturn We doubt that the recent jump in China’s iron ore imports is indicative of increasing demand. In fact, we expect demand for iron ore in China to cool as construction activity continues to slow and the... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in China commodity imports may be misleading The sharp rise in China’s commodity imports last month could be taken as a sign that underlying demand growth is undergoing a renewed acceleration. But given that this is just one month’s data, and... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green transition to help charge cobalt prices Cobalt prices have soared in 2021 to almost double the 2020 average price of $31,726 per tonne. We expect the growth in EV production and issues around supply to continue to push prices higher in 2022... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc supply shock as power prices rise The recent highs in the zinc price have been driven by fears around supply as sky-rocketing energy prices have undermined smelter profitability. We expect power prices to remain high in the coming... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read