Industrial Metals Update Little to galvanise investors to buy zinc We expect refined zinc output to grow at its fastest pace for nine years in 2019 and this, combined with ailing demand, suggests zinc prices should continue to fall to our end-2019 forecast of $2,300... 12th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low exchange stocks not a problem, for now … As demand fears have taken centre stage, persistently low exchange stocks have stayed under the radar. We think this is unlikely to change this year. But in 2020, looser monetary conditions and rising... 11th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The ABC of aluminium restarts We believe that the restarts at Alunorte, Becancour and in China will provide additional downward pressure on the price of aluminium. This, coupled with a weak demand backdrop, means that we expect... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper not to come a cropper Despite rising trade tensions and soft demand growth, we think that the price of copper will be resilient in the coming months and rally thereafter due to supply constraints. 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The writing is on the wall for Chinese steel Chinese steel rebar prices have been bolstered recently by surprisingly resilient construction activity, but we expect demand to falter in the coming months and prices to fall sharply. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore over $100 per tonne will prove temporary Iron ore prices have soared on the back of disruptions to supply and strong growth in demand from China’s steel sector. We think that neither will last. Consequently, we expect the price of iron ore... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The US steel price bloodbath is not over yet US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rare earths prices could get a shot in the arm China’s threat to restrict rare earth exports to the US has awoken the prices of rare earth elements (REE) from their slumber. While restrictions on Chinese exports to the US are unlikely to occur... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak demand to weigh on steel prices The recent strength in global steel production is unlikely to continue as we expect growth in global steel demand to soften and prices to fall in the months ahead. 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices could drop sharply We expect the Chinese price of steel rebar to drop by more than a fifth this year as a cooling property sector dents demand. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read