Industrial Metals Update Consumption data are overstating aluminium demand We think that aluminium consumption figures are being flattered by a resurgence in off-exchange stockpiling. As such, and contrary to consensus expectations of a market deficit in 2019, we think that... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is down for Chinese steel Our forecast of a downturn in China’s property sector bodes ill for the price of Chinese steel. Moreover, falling iron ore prices and a bleak outlook for China’s steel exports will add to the downward... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More of the same for tin in 2020 Output cuts by Chinese smelters mean that the price of tin is unlikely to fall further in the coming quarters. But with growth in major consumers set to slow and tin particularly exposed to “List 4”... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Trade war’s grip on metals to ease Despite the latest “mini-deal”, we think it is only a matter of time before trade tensions between the US and China escalate again. Either way, we think that the recovery in global economic growth... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low stocks sowing the seeds for price rebound On the whole, dwindling exchange stocks have had a muted impact on prices this year as global growth has slowed. But as inventories creep towards critical lows, this sets the scene for a sustained... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More to dwindling aluminium output than low prices At first glance, weak global aluminium output so far this year can be chalked up to the slump in prices. However, lower Chinese production growth has more to do with government-led crackdowns on... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Just how much nickel is sitting off-exchange? We estimate that 190,000 tonnes of refined nickel have flowed into unreported stocks since 2017. In other words, nickel stocks are much higher than official numbers indicate. This supports our view... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese outages won’t boost LME aluminium price Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices have further to fall Surging Chinese smelter output and faltering demand mean we think that zinc prices are set to drop by more than 15% by the end of this year and are unlikely to start recovering until the second half... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Back to 2014 for nickel Indonesia’s announcement of an imminent ban on exports of nickel ore has sent nickel prices to a five-year high. While trending higher initially, we expect prices to slump next year as supply is... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead price rally to go into reverse We think that a recovery in refined lead production, ailing demand, and elevated trade tensions should cause the price of lead to drop by almost 15% by end-2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper caught up in the global malaise Copper prices are hovering near two-year lows, reflecting investor concerns about the outlook for global growth. While dwindling mine supply should put a floor under prices, deteriorating investor... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Cobalt prices to soar Glencore’s decision to temporarily close the world’s largest cobalt mine by the end of this year has given cobalt prices a shot in the arm. As a result, the price of cobalt could rally by more than 60... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s rally is premature Nickel prices have surged in recent weeks, owing to optimism over future demand from the electric vehicle sector and speculation that Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports could be brought forward... 9th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Back to normality for iron ore Iron ore prices have plunged by a sixth so far in August and we think that rebounding output and slower Chinese demand growth will mean that prices will fall by a further 20% to $80 per tonne by end... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why the fundamentals still matter for base metals The rise of speculative investment in base metals has resulted in high levels of overall price correlation. Beyond this, copper seems to provide a fairly reliable gauge of the general direction of... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read