Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Revising our forecasts as COVID-19 effects linger We had previously assumed that any coronavirus-related hit to metals demand in Q1 would be made up in subsequent quarters. But that now seems unlikely. As a result, we are lowering our year-end price... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Perception the key to cobalt’s future There is potential for cobalt’s end-use in electric vehicle batteries to grow rapidly. However, concerns over the concentration of cobalt supply in the DRC have held back demand so far. Several auto... 18th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Supply cutbacks in China look increasingly likely Measures to contain the spread of coronavirus in China have already dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. But the longer China’s economy remains part-suspended, the greater the chance that supply is... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Coronavirus could push copper market into surplus The outbreak of coronavirus in China threatens to derail the recovery we were expecting in the price of copper this year. In fact, when our estimate for the potential loss of copper demand is plugged... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price to rise in 2020 despite surplus We forecast that the price of aluminium will rise this year even if, as we expect, the market flips from a deficit to a surplus. This is due to our expectation that investors will focus on a more... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Focus to continue to shift away from US-China trade The muted market reaction to news of a provisional trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that the trade war’s grip on metals markets will ease over the coming year. While we are... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The best days are behind iron ore After scaling a multi-year high in 2019, we forecast that iron ore prices will fall back over the coming years. This is premised on the continued return of supply from Brazil and Australia following... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The case for copper In our view, the outlook for copper prices over the next twelve months is positive. Supply is unlikely to recover nearly as quickly as many assume following major disruptions this year, and demand... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Latest Trump tariffs pose little downside risk to prices President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Brazil and Argentina is likely to have little impact on prices. And while this could be interpreted as a sign that... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s slump gives scope for upside in 2020 Following the recent correction in the nickel price, we now think there is room for it to rise next year. We expect a large loss of supply and a recovery in demand to yield a deeper market deficit... 28th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead supply shortfall in 2020 looks increasingly likely In our view, market participants have recently become too downbeat on the prospects for lead. In fact, we think there are several reasons to expect the price of lead to rebound in the year ahead. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Burgeoning supply to take the shine off zinc The price of zinc has risen a little since its recent low in September on the back of unanticipated disruptions to supply. But we expect it to fall back again next year, premised on a rebound in... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read