India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024)

The fall in headline consumer price inflation in March to a 10-month low will comfort policymakers and, looking ahead, we think headline inflation will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the...

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Apr.)

India Rapid Response

India Flash Composite PMI (Mar. 2024)

The flash composite PMI reading for March suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. While growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India will remain a global...

India Rapid Response

India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target. That suggests to us...

India Rapid Response

India GDP (Q4 2023)

The GDP data for Q4 confirm that India’s economy ended last year with a bang. Looking ahead, we expect economic activity to moderate over the coming quarters but it should still remain exceptionally...

India Rapid Response

India Flash Composite PMI (Feb. 2024)

The flash composite PMI reading for February suggests that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. Looking ahead, while growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors is likely to...

India Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Jan.)

In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. But it is clear that...

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Feb.)

The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and continued to strike a hawkish tone. With the economy holding up well and inflation to remain above the 4% target for a few more months...

India Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMI (Jan.)

The final manufacturing PMI reading for January suggests that activity got off to a strong start this year. Looking ahead, while manufacturing output is likely to moderate in the coming months, it...

India Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The rise in headline consumer price inflation to a four-month high in December supports our view that the central bank will be in no rush to loosen policy. We expect rate cuts to materialise in the...

India Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMI (Dec.)

The manufacturing PMI survey for December suggests that activity lost some momentum at the end of 2023. That said, we think that growth in the sector is likely to hold up well in 2024 and that India...

India Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (Nov.)

Headline consumer price inflation rose to a three-month high of 5.6% y/y in November amid a renewed rise in food price inflation and the timely daily data point to a further uptick in December. This...

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Dec.)

India Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMI (Nov.)

The manufacturing PMI survey for November suggests that activity continues to remain strong in Q4. The economy is on course to grow by 7.0% this year, a pick up from 6.7% last year.

India Rapid Response

GDP (Q3)

The RBI had stated that the GDP data for Q3 (Q2 of FY23/24) would “surprise everyone on the upside” and, even despite that spoiler, the data came in much stronger than expectations. While economic...