India Economics Weekly

GST 2.0, infrastructure drive, CPI data

Upcoming simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) confirmed by the Finance Ministry this week will result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide a...

5th September 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Strong H1, additional US tariff comes in, Modi-Xi meeting

The strength of the Q2 GDP data leaves the economy on course to grow by 7% this year, but it is facing a more challenging 2026 as punitive US tariffs hit. Geopolitics will dominate the headlines next...

29th August 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Don't let a good crisis go to waste

Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27th August deadline. But policymakers are using the threat that tariffs pose to the economy to...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: All eyes on Trump-Putin meeting, a Diwali GST gift

The meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska later today could pave the way to a reduction in India's US tariff rate. Meanwhile, PM Modi struck a defiant tone regarding the tariff threat...

15th August 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire

The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China...

8th August 2025 · 5 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Trump's tariffs on India come with a Russian edge

India will be hit by a 25% US tariff and that rate could climb higher depending on the nature of the as-yet-unspecified penalty due to its economic ties to Russia. But with trade talks between the US...

1st August 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Security concerns with China still trump all else

President Trump’s tariff threats and public efforts to improve relations with Pakistan has fuelled increased commentary around whether India should attempt to improve its own relations with China as...

25th July 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers

President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Falling inflation, trade uncertainty, equity underperformance

June inflation data, due next week, is set to show headline inflation dropping to 2.6% y/y — the lowest in over six years — driven by tumbling food prices. Despite this, the RBI is unlikely to respond...

11th July 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal

The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the...

4th July 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Mixed messaging on India-US trade deal prospects

President Trump's talking up of the prospects of a "very big" trade deal between India and the US this week are at odds with recent reports which suggest that India's politically sensitive...

27th June 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, record deficit with China

The goods trade data for May released this week suggest that tariff front-running has faded. But exports to the US remain strong, in what could be a sign of US buyers switching to alternative...

20th June 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Q3 Outlook, inflation, defence spending

Headline inflation in India has dropped to a more-than-six-year low and, while higher oil prices are an upside risk following Israel's air strikes on Iran, there are reasons to think inflation will...

13th June 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut

Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its...

6th June 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview

In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle.

30th May 2025 · 3 mins read