India Economics Weekly Bihar election looms large over India-US trade talks The Bihar state election will be closely watched for its implications for reforms and as a potential referendum on India’s stance in trade talks with the US. Bihar is one of India’s most agrarian... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil import conundrum, RBI squeezes short-sellers President Trump's comments this week that Prime Minister Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia have been denied by India's Ministry Of External Affairs. The latest data show that Russia's... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deals back in focus The flurry of activity around bilateral trade deals this week highlights the shift to a more liberal approach among Indian policymakers. Politically-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will probably... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector cheers RBI reforms The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% this week but struck a fairly dovish tone, suggesting that further interest rate cuts are still likely in the coming months. The... 3rd October 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI? The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly US trade talks resume, PM Modi at 75 Talks between US and Indian trade officials resumed this week in Delhi, hinting at a slight thawing in relations that have become acrimonious over the past couple of months. But while an encouraging... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly GST 2.0, infrastructure drive, CPI data Upcoming simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) confirmed by the Finance Ministry this week will result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide a... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strong H1, additional US tariff comes in, Modi-Xi meeting The strength of the Q2 GDP data leaves the economy on course to grow by 7% this year, but it is facing a more challenging 2026 as punitive US tariffs hit. Geopolitics will dominate the headlines next... 29th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Don't let a good crisis go to waste Time is running out for India to secure a reduction to the 50% tariff on exports to the US ahead of the 27th August deadline. But policymakers are using the threat that tariffs pose to the economy to... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: All eyes on Trump-Putin meeting, a Diwali GST gift The meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska later today could pave the way to a reduction in India's US tariff rate. Meanwhile, PM Modi struck a defiant tone regarding the tariff threat... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Trump's tariffs on India come with a Russian edge India will be hit by a 25% US tariff and that rate could climb higher depending on the nature of the as-yet-unspecified penalty due to its economic ties to Russia. But with trade talks between the US... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Security concerns with China still trump all else President Trump’s tariff threats and public efforts to improve relations with Pakistan has fuelled increased commentary around whether India should attempt to improve its own relations with China as... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Falling inflation, trade uncertainty, equity underperformance June inflation data, due next week, is set to show headline inflation dropping to 2.6% y/y — the lowest in over six years — driven by tumbling food prices. Despite this, the RBI is unlikely to respond... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
