India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in May will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp drop in Indian consumer price inflation in May is likely to raise further questions about the RBI’s reluctance to loosen policy. But we think the central bank’s unwillingness to cut rates is... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s PMI reading suggests that India’s manufacturing sector weakened a touch last month, but remained in relatively good shape following demonetisation. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) The slowdown in growth in the Q1 GDP data for India released today doesn’t quite tally with other evidence which has tended to suggest that growth stabilised or picked up last quarter. It is... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & IP (Mar.) April’s sharp fall in consumer price inflation makes the rate hike we’ve been arguing would occur before the end of the year seem less likely. But we suspect the drop in inflation will be reversed... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI held steady at a multi-month high in April, supporting our view that the economy is on a firmer footing after the hit to activity from demonetisation. Looking ahead... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in March, but the bigger picture is that it remains close to its highest rate in three years, and that price pressures are still elevated. 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose again in March, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow up last week’s hike to the... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI in March is another sign that the economy is on a firmer footing after the hit to activity from demonetisation. Looking ahead, manufacturers should continue to... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation accelerated in February for the first time since demonetisation due mainly to a rebound in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising price pressures could prompt the RBI to hike... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The rise in Indian wholesale price inflation in February to its highest rate in over three years supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) We wouldn’t make too much of January’s rebound in industrial production. This is, after all, a volatile series. But it supports other evidence that the impact of demonetisation has started to wane. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI in February is another sign that the most severe impact on activity from demonetisation has passed. Looking ahead, manufacturers should continue to recover over... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Official GDP data showing only a gradual slowdown in Indian growth in Q4 is hard to square with other more reliable monthly data which show activity slowed sharply towards the end of last year... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Indian wholesale price inflation last month supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest rates much sooner than is generally... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer price inflation dropped in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But inflationary pressures are set to build over the coming months, and we continue to believe that... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
