India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slight drop in headline CPI inflation in February won’t have been enough to ease the concerns of the hawks on the MPC and, as a result, we now expect another 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.75%)... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) Growth in industrial production picked up in January, supporting our view that Q4 will have marked the trough for q/q growth. Nevertheless, the outlook for the industrial sector over the coming months... 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading edged down in February to a four-month low. We expect the reading to drop further over the coming months as both external and domestic demand soften. 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP data for Q4 (Q3 of FY22/23) show that India’s economy came off the boil at the end of last year as higher interest rates weighed on household consumption and investment. But with the hawks still... 28th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly large jump in headline consumer price inflation in January to 6.5% y/y is a clear challenge to our view that the hiking cycle is at an end. Further signs of the economy coming off the... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI showed signs of moderation in January after defying gravity for several months previously. It should drop further over the coming months as the economy comes off the boil. 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The drop in Indian wholesale price inflation for the sixth month in a row in December further reinforces our view that the MPC will draw the tightening cycle to a close after one more rate hike in its... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The further easing in headline CPI inflation in December to a 12-month low of 5.7% y/y supports our view that the tightening cycle is in its final throes. We expect just one more hike in the repo rate... 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s manufacturing and services PMI readings rose to multi-month highs in December but are at odds with the hard activity data that point to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) The fall in Indian wholesale price inflation to a 21-month low in November chimes with the sharper-than-expected drop in headline consumer price inflation released earlier this week. We maintain our... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharper-than-expected drop in headline CPI inflation in November (to 5.9% y/y) pulls it below the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s 2-6% target range for the first time in almost a year. We maintain... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in November and continues to buck the weaker regional trend. The survey also indicates that price pressures are easing, reinforcing our view that the RBI is now in a... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) While base effects caused a sharp slowdown in headline GDP growth in India in Q3 (Q2 of FY22/23), growth held up well in quarter-on-quarter terms. However, there are signs in more timely activity data... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The substantial falls in both headline consumer and wholesale price inflation in October reinforce our view that the Reserve Bank will slow the pace of monetary tightening in its next scheduled policy... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production in India rebounded strongly in September, but we don’t expect this strength to last. Higher interest rates and the slowdown in global demand look set to weigh heavily on the... 11th November 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing sector appears to have bucked the weaker regional trend, with an increase in its PMI last month. There was nothing in today’s release to dissuade the RBI from further tightening... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
