UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Revisiting Dubai’s GRE debts We have long highlighted the risk in Dubai’s corporate sector and the large debts that government-related entities (GREs) have accrued. This Update provides our latest estimates of these debts. The... 16th January 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising cost of foreign holidays to support hotel demand Hotel demand has suffered recently from the impact of high inflation and interest rates weighing on discretionary spending. But thanks to the soaring cost of foreign holidays and a revival in... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail sector defies cost-of-living crisis The leisure sector is now feeling the impact of the cost-of-living crisis, with rising vacancy and declining rents. But we don’t think the retail sector will follow in its footsteps. Households are... 26th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns underpinned by income After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 21st August 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Dogged inflation means more yield rises to come Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 30th May 2023 · 24 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update A silver lining for hotels? Exhausted household savings and an upcoming recession is set to hit hotel demand over the next year or so. However, as happened in the aftermath of the GFC, some stretched households may decide to... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure sector to suffer as savings are exhausted Despite the cost-of-living crisis, the leisure sector did better than expected last year as households used the savings they had built up during the pandemic to boost spending on recreation and... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to stabilise in 2023 after brutal 2022 The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year... 24th February 2023 · 27 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hotel RevPar growth to stall in 2023 Revenues in the hotel sector have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels after being the hardest hit by COVID-19. Although there are few signs yet of momentum slowing, we expect growth in the sector to... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Yields make decisive move up All-property yields saw a large rise in August, as concerns around valuations increased. (See Chart 1.) And, with the energy support package set to boost interest rates and the economy probably... 22nd September 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Cost-of-living crisis to weigh on property returns Surging inflation and the upcoming recession will cut real household disposable incomes, which are set to see their largest fall on record. That drop in spending power will hit demand for all property... 23rd August 2022 · 29 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural changes threaten the hotel recovery The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
