Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update France’s stock market likely to remain a laggard France’s financial markets have been under the cosh for much of 2025, as political gridlock in parliament has kept the door revolving at the Matignon. Equities have not gone unscathed, with the bond... 27th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds & Equities Canaries in the coalmine or a storm in a teacup? We doubt that the recent turbulence in financial markets and credit losses in the US will mark an imminent end to the AI-driven equity market surge, although recent developments illustrate that the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update What long-run r* are investors pricing in? While market pricing already looks consistent with our view that r* will rise to around 2% in the US over the coming decade, a deeper look suggests that there is still room for investors’ rate... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update UK-US valuation gap reflects more than just AI hype We expect the UK stock market will continue to underperform its more tech-heavy US counterpart as enthusiasm for AI continues to grow. What’s more, if the bubble in AI were to burst, we think there is... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal fears likely to stay baked into Gilt yields We still think the 10-year Gilt yield will fall by the end of 2026 as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to anticipate. But with term premia likely to remain elevated... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What next for the S&P 500 after another all-time high? All-time highs in the S&P 500 and years of strong gains don’t mean the index is set to run out of steam. Rather than the level or momentum of the market, history suggests that returns from here will... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Are US stocks really worth a higher valuation than the rest? The US stock market is at an all-time high, thanks in part to rapid earnings growth and expectations for that to continue. But rising valuations have also played their part, to the point where US... 28th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s next for non-US equities? Though future changes to US tariffs could still cause some volatility in equity markets, we think other factors will mean equities outside the US continue to make decent gains for the rest of this... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rally in EM financial markets slowing: what’s next? After a stellar performance in the first half of 2025, the emerging market (EM) asset rally has slowed over the past few weeks following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements. While we... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect the BoE to cut further and gilt yields to fall The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why another slump in superlong JGBs is not inevitable The recent rout in superlong JGBs mainly reflected waning demand from within Japan. Although that trend may not reverse because it is partly structural, we doubt the slump will continue for four... 28th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Your questions on equities, bonds and FX answered We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for equity, bond and currency markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 22nd July 2025 · 9 mins read
Bonds Focus Measuring Treasury term premia Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the... 14th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Bonds & Equities Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
