Equities Update Did the stock market just send another false recession signal? Paul Samuelson famously quipped in 1966 that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions in the US. We suspect it just sent another false signal about an economic downturn. 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on Powell points to steeper curve Fears over the independence of the Fed can now be added to the growing list of things troubling investors. Market moves over the past couple of days shed some light on the likely market consequences... 22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Easing political crisis won’t be a gamechanger Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon’s impeachment today which should ease concerns around Korea’s democratic institutions and institutional frameworks. With fresh presidential elections... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs. 1st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market. 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Response: Unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
Bonds Focus Recessions, bubbles, and US high-yield spreads We don’t think US high-yield (HY) spreads would fall all the way back to their recent lows even if US recession concerns faded and a stock market bubble reinflated. And we think they would rise... 20th March 2025 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update South Africa’s political uncertainty likely to weigh on assets Lingering fiscal risks in South Africa, alongside the challenging global backdrop, prompt us to expect a dim outlook for the country’s bonds, equities and the rand over the rest of this year. 18th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the yen due a breather? The yen’s rally faces some near-term stumbling blocks, in our view, but we still think it will end this year stronger against the US dollar than it is now. 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the post-payroll roundtrip in US markets While heightened uncertainty and worries about the US economy may keep investors on their toes for a while yet, we think the risk-on mood in markets will come back before the end of the year. 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead? 1741795200 The recent underperformance of US equities marks a notable shift in the global market environment – but is this just a temporary state of affairs or the new order of things?&n
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update The S&P 500 in 2025: a five-figure fantasy? While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative... 20th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think moves in DM yields may diverge before long Although long-term government bond yields in developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem with those of US Treasuries in recent months, we think they will diverge in the coming months. 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Trump’s tariffs a headwind for EM debt We doubt that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff threat, nor his broader protectionist agenda, are priced in markets fully. We expect US Treasury yields and the dollar to edge up as these tariffs come... 18th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Rising Treasury term premia and the stock-bond correlation Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to... 14th February 2025 · 5 mins read
