Capital Daily We don’t expect the Treasury rally to last the year We expect Treasuries to struggle over the rest of the year, despite their recent strong run. 2nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Equities Update A closer look at equities and tariffs President Trump’s recent suggestion that he may yet ratchet US tariffs higher highlights how much uncertainty there still is around both where tariff rates will eventually settle and the US policy... 12th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Back to square one? Taking stock of the trade war roundtrip One month on from the peak of the post-“Liberation Day” market turmoil, calm has largely returned and most key asset markets have recovered much, or all, of the ground lost in the days following 2nd... 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook over the next couple of years. We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone... 15th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Good news on inflation not doing much for Treasuries Despite the US-China truce, we still think inflationary pressures will prompt the Fed to stay pat for a while yet. But we doubt the 10-year Treasury yield will rise much more from here, even though... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Did the stock market just send another false recession signal? Paul Samuelson famously quipped in 1966 that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions in the US. We suspect it just sent another false signal about an economic downturn. 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on Powell points to steeper curve Fears over the independence of the Fed can now be added to the growing list of things troubling investors. Market moves over the past couple of days shed some light on the likely market consequences... 22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: Easing political crisis won’t be a gamechanger Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld President Yoon’s impeachment today which should ease concerns around Korea’s democratic institutions and institutional frameworks. With fresh presidential elections... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs. 1st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market. 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Response: Unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
Bonds Focus Recessions, bubbles, and US high-yield spreads We don’t think US high-yield (HY) spreads would fall all the way back to their recent lows even if US recession concerns faded and a stock market bubble reinflated. And we think they would rise... 20th March 2025 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update South Africa’s political uncertainty likely to weigh on assets Lingering fiscal risks in South Africa, alongside the challenging global backdrop, prompt us to expect a dim outlook for the country’s bonds, equities and the rand over the rest of this year. 18th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the yen due a breather? The yen’s rally faces some near-term stumbling blocks, in our view, but we still think it will end this year stronger against the US dollar than it is now. 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the post-payroll roundtrip in US markets While heightened uncertainty and worries about the US economy may keep investors on their toes for a while yet, we think the risk-on mood in markets will come back before the end of the year. 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
