Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor's second Budget to be about as big as her first Reports that the Chancellor will leave herself with more headroom and that the Office for Budget Responsibility will downgrade its productivity forecasts by more than we were anticipating suggest the... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug 2025) The shock 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in August is not quite as bad as it looks, given the role played by temporary factors and the accompanying upward revision to growth in July. Nonetheless, it provides... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2025) The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in October suggests that homebuyers may not be as fazed by the threat of tax rises in the Budget on 26 th November, potentially on property, as it... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on course for January rate hike While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, but easing cycle not over With underlying inflation in Australia having surprised materially to the upside in Q3, the RBA is all but certain to leave rates unchanged next week. However, unlike several other analysts we're not... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Labour Market (Sep. 25) The September activity data suggest that the contraction in Q3 GDP may be milder than we had anticipated and the economy should return to growth this quarter. 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will wait until January before tightening again The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today and Governor Ueda indicated that the Bank wants to gather more information on the strength of pay hikes in next year’s spring wage negotiations... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Oct. 25) The Bank of Japan signaled continued concerns about the impact of higher US tariff when keeping policy settings unchanged today and we’re sticking to our forecast that the next rate hike will only... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts and ends QT, but further loosening not guaranteed The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected, with dissents in both directions, and Chair Jerome... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Oct) The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected. While Trump-appointee Stephen Miran again voted for a... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts but thinks it has done enough With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut widely anticipated, the key development today was the signal that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2025) With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut today widely anticipated, the key development was that it signalled that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Skipping a cut With CPI inflation almost double the 2.0% target and the Budget in a few weeks’ time, we think that a narrow majority of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will vote to keep interest... 29th October 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2025) There is little evidence within September’s money and lending data that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November is influencing households’ financial decisions just yet. 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
