US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Sep. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025) Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2025) The sharp decline in output last quarter puts a bumper 50bp cut in play for the RBNZ at its October meeting. Risks to our forecast for a terminal rate of 2.5% are also tilted to the downside. 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on board with further loosening despite high inflation The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update 25bp cut but Bank unwilling to commit to more yet Alongside the decision to cut its policy rate by 25p today, the Bank of Canada dropped its previous forward guidance hinting at more cuts to come. Nonetheless, Governor Tiff Macklem’s comments in the... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Aug. 2025) The weakness in August housing starts was as expected, especially after July’s hard-to-explain strength. While homebuilders have recently become more optimistic about prospects for housing demand, as... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Can Japan meet its US investment pledge? Japan will struggle to invest $550bn in foreign direct investment in the US. But we suspect that this sum also includes other forms of capital, which would make it feasible to meet the target and... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The recent upward march in CPI inflation paused for breath in August, with CPI inflation staying at 3.8%. Even so, as inflation will probably rise above 4.0% in September, the Bank of England won’t do... 17th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2025) The rise in home sales in August was a little better than expected and, while house prices did edge down, there was little in the latest housing data to make us doubt our view that house prices are... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output continued its long trend of underwhelming growth in August, bucking claims that tariffs would either trigger a downturn or a reshoring renaissance. Instead, the factory sector... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales indicate that consumers are not pulling back despite the labour market cooling. 16th September 2025 · 1 min read
