Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will call time on loose policy next year The Bank of Japan still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. But with inflation proving stickier than expected, we expect the Bank to lift its policy rate in January and have... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What rate hikes in Japan could mean for global markets We now expect the Bank of Japan to hike its policy rate – for the first time in sixteen years – next January. While we think global markets are generally braced for such an event, there’s a clear risk... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Higher energy inflation won’t prompt further rate hikes The recent jump in crude oil prices will lift headline inflation in Australia, but we doubt it will have much bearing on underlying inflation. Accordingly, we still think that the RBA's next move will... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2023) The 0.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in August isn’t as good as it looks as it partly reflected a pickup in sales after the unusually wet weather in July. And while the worst of the falls in... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for US and UK markets We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Interest rate hold won’t provide immediate relief Despite ending the interest rate hiking cycle today, the Monetary Policy Committee succeeded in convincing financial markets that interest rates will remain high for some time. As market interest rate... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Sales fall back to January lows The 0.7% m/m fall back in existing home sales in August reflects falling mortgage borrowing and took sales back close to the low levels recorded in January. Our view... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Interest rates are at their peak The surprise decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today probably means that rates are already at their peak. We think rates will stay at this peak of 5.25% for... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Sep. 2023) 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2023) August's public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. So while the Chancellor has ruled out tax cuts in the Autumn Statement on 22nd November... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2023) The unexpectedly strong rebound in activity last quarter means that the RBNZ may well judge it has more work to do. All told, there are growing risks that the Bank will not only hike again, but also... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed doubles down on 'higher for longer' The Fed doubled down on its mantra that interest rates will remain higher for longer, with its updated projections suggesting that the economy will enjoy the softest of soft landings and core... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
