RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS show little sign of labour market weakness The JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy in May, with job openings and private sector hiring rising, and layoffs low. However, the sharp rise in accommodation and food services job... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We’re not convinced the dollar will keep falling The weakness in the dollar in June was easier to explain than its slide in April and May since – unlike in those months – it was accompanied by a shift in bond yields that might have been expected to... 1st July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2025) The modest rebound in the ISM headline index to 49.0 in June, from 48.5, should temper concerns of a factory sector collapse driven by tariffs and lingering trade uncertainty. While the hit to... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2025) The large fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in June shows that the housing market is still struggling to recover from the combination of the stamp duty induced lull and the subdued... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's housing rebound has further to run House prices rose the most since last year in June and with the RBA set to cut interest rates much further, the housing market will continue to gain momentum. However, affordability will remain quite... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Housing is struggling under the weight of high borrowing costs – a problem unlikely to ease if, as we expect, the Fed holds rates steady this year due to tariff-driven inflation, followed by only a... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Dip in house prices won’t turn into deeper correction Recent house price declines suggest a shift toward a more buyer-friendly market, as rising home listings increase choice and temper seller expectations. Nonetheless, leading indicators and solid... 30th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q1 2025 Final) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.7% q/q in Q1, but we already know this strength has started to unwind. The underlying picture is still that there is very little momentum in the economy. 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May 25) 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: High services inflation not a big concern The CPI data showed the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by an average of 0.2% m/m in May, which was lower than in the previous month but still a bit too strong... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump fast-tracks search for Powell successor Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful balance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week, offering no signal that a July cut is likely, while keeping the door open to reductions later in... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
