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UK Forecast Forum 2018

25 January, 2018
The Royal Automobile Club, London

The UK economy performed a lot better than most expected in 2017, with growth barely lower than the previous year. However, most other forecasters think that the Brexit-related slowdown has merely been delayed, rather than avoided. In our UK Forecast Forum, ‘Will the economy sink or swim in 2018?’, we take a look at the key factors that are driving these expectations. In particular, whether Brexit uncertainty might start to bite in 2018, whether inflation has now peaked, and if there are any risks stemming from the property market. Finally, we delve deeper into the UK’s long-run economic outlook, and discuss whether or not other forecasters have now become too downbeat on the economy’s prospects.

  • Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite this year?

    Jonathan Loynes, our Chief Economist, discusses the following:

    • How is Brexit shaping up?
    • Why has uncertainty not hit harder?
    • Will it increase or subside this year?

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  • How much longer will the consumer squeeze last?

    Ruth Gregory, our UK Economist, discusses the following:

    • Will inflation fall back this year?
    • Will wage growth ever pick up?
    • How hard will higher interest rates hit consumers?

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  • Will the property market wilt in 2018?

    Ed Stansfield, our Chief Property Economist, discusses the following:

    • Do rising rates mark the end of property’s sweet spot?
    • Is property too dependent on low rates?
    • Will London be the weak link?
    • Other risks?
    • The outlook for property in 2018.

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  • Is the UK’s long-term outlook really so bad?

    Paul Hollingsworth, our Senior UK Economist, discusses the following:

    • Is it time to give up on productivity ever recovering?
    • Can policy change the outlook?
    • What impact will Brexit have?

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