Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2025) February’s decline in headline inflation was encouraging because it was partly due to lower services inflation. We expect the headline rate to remain above 2% throughout most of this year but services... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany (states), France & Spain Flash Inflation (Feb.) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation dropped back in February, and that core inflation might have finally started to come down more significantly. (Euro-zone data... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (February 2025) Surveys so far this year, including today’s EC survey for February, suggest the economy remains very weak while inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated. While the ESI did increase in... 27th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Federal Election There was never any doubt that the centre right CDU would come out on top of the German federal election and that its leader Friedrich Merz would become the next German Chancellor . The first exit... 23rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2024) The euro-zone economy performed a little better than previously though t in Q4, but growth was still extremely weak and the early signs are that it got off to a slow start to 2025. There is also... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (December 2024) The fall in euro-zone industrial production in December means that the sector contracted again in Q4. Surveys suggest that production will remain subdued in the coming months and we think that the... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The fall in inflation in January was a little smaller than we had anticipated and perhaps reduces the risk of Switzerland falling into deflation later this year. But we still think the SNB is most... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec. 24) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales means that growth over Q4 as a whole slowed substantially. We suspect that spending growth will remain subdued in the coming quarters. 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2025) January’s inflation data won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates. The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany states, France, Spain Flash HICP (Jan. 2025) 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (January 2024) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today came as no surprise and the accompanying statement implies that more cuts are coming, as is widely anticipated. We think the Bank will... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2024) & Unemployment (Dec.) The stagnation in euro-zone GDP in Q4 supports our view that the region’s economic prospects are worse than most think. We expect this to prompt the ECB to cut interest rates by more this year than is... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
