Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2025) While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater confidence... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (October) The slight fall in Swiss headline inflation in October will come as a big surprise to the SNB, which expected inflation to increase markedly in the fourth quarter. However, we think that inflation is... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2025) The small drop back in inflation in October was expected and was driven by a further fall in energy and food inflation. We think both headline and core inflation are likely to fall below 2% in the... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was exactly as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2025) & ESI (October 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained fairly slow in Q3, and October’s economic sentiment indicator was consistent with a similar pace of growth at the start of Q4. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France and Italy GDP (Q3 2025) National data available so far suggests that euro-zone GDP probably grew by a slightly stronger than expected 0.2% q/q in Q3, mainly thanks to a strong performance by France and Spain. Germany and... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2025) The pick-up in the German Ifo chimes with that in the Composite PMI released on Friday and suggests that the German economy may be past the worst. This would be in line with our view that economy will... 27th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2025) October’s flash PMIs suggest that the euro-zone economy may have picked up a bit at the start of the fourth quarter, although we suspect that growth will probably remain low at around 0.2% q/q. 24th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August) The decline in industrial production in August supports our view that the economy as a whole barely grew in Q3, for a second successive quarter. Prospects for industry remain poor for the foreseeable... 15th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (August) The slump in German industrial production in August was partly due to temporary car plant closures for the summer holidays, which should prove temporary. But that wasn’t the whole story and previous... 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (September) CPIF inflation edged down in September and is likely to fall much more significantly next year – to around just 1%. Despite that, we think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate on hold for the next... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (September) Switzerland’s headline inflation rate once again remained at 0.2% in September, but we think it will fall back to zero by early next year. Accordingly, we expect the SNB to cut interest rates again... 2nd October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (September) The small rise in euro-zone HICP inflation in September will not shift the consensus at the ECB that rates are in a “good place” for now. However, we think inflation will fall to only 1.5% by December... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (September 2025) September’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the evidence that euro-zone GDP growth remained subdued in Q3, while inflationary pressures are under control. 29th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (September 2025) While the SNB kept its policy rate at zero today and left its inflation forecast unchanged, we still expect policymakers to cut the policy rate into negative territory over the coming quarters. We... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
