Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (February) The strength of wage growth and core inflation will reinforce ECB policymakers’ conviction that, provided the region’s banks don’t come under further sustained pressure, their tightening cycle is not... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The rise in industrial production in January was entirely due to strong growth in Germany and Ireland, with all other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2022) Revised figures show that the euro-zone economy flatlined in Q4 last year and that domestic demand dropped sharply. There have been some positive signs in the past couple of months, but policy... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The big rebound in German industrial output in January suggests that industry may continue to hold up well in the face of the energy crisis. However, with the renewed drop in retail sales pointing to... 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s rise in euro-zone retail sales was not enough to offset December’s fall. And the low levels of household confidence suggest that consumption will decline in the coming months. 6th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Feb.) February’s final Composite PMIs suggests that economic activity in the euro-zone has been fairly resilient in February, with the indices for Spain and Italy, and for the services sector, particularly... 3rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Feb.) February’s increase in core inflation will reinforce ECB policymakers’ conviction that significant rate increases are needed. For some time we have been forecasting a 50bp hike at the meeting in two... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (February) The renewed rise in headline inflation in Germany, France and Spain in February suggests euro-zone inflation edged up this month, rather than falling as had been expected. With signs that underlying... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) The stabilisation of the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in February contrasts with the significant increases in the PMIs and provides some support for our view that the economy will struggle this... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022, second estimate) The downward revision to German Q4 GDP means the hit to activity at the end of last year was closer to our original expectation. It also suggests a technical recession in Germany during Q4 and Q1 is... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (January) The surprise upward revision to euro-zone core inflation in January, to a new record high, will embolden the majority of ECB policymakers who want to press on with significant further rate hikes. 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response German Consumer Prices (January) The final release of German HICP for January confirmed that the headline rate fell but, disappointingly, still didn’t reveal what happened to the core rate. That said, there was some evidence that... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) The further rise in the Ifo in February confirms that the German economy may have been a bit more resilient than we had expected in Q1. But with the index still in recessionary territory and the drag... 22nd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) The ZEW indicators point to a further improvement in sentiment towards Germany and, along with other recent surveys, suggest that the economy is holding up better than we had anticipated. 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s chunky rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy will grow in Q1. With the labour market still very tight and price pressures strong, the survey will reinforce ECB... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Euro-zone Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Output & Trade Balance (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone industrial production and imports in December further highlights the weakening in the economy at the end of last year. We expect the economy to enter a recession this year as the... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
