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Emerging Europe Economics

Turkey

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Another victory for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's People's Alliance in elections due to be held by June 2023 threaten a continuation of unorthodox policymaking and economic and financial crises. Even if a coalition of opposition parties wins, the country faces an uphill battle to restore economic order and investor confidence. 

Below is curated selection of key analysis about the election and its macro and market consequences. Check back here for our latest insight as the election approaches.  

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Region heading for recession

The downturn in Russia’s economy appears to be bottoming out but a sustained recovery looks some way off, particularly as tighter energy sanctions come into force. Elsewhere in the region, economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost all economies in the region to experience a recession and our 2023 growth forecasts are significantly below the consensus. Central banks in Central Europe are at or close to the end of their tightening cycles but the risks are skewed to further hikes, particularly with inflation set to rise further and currencies to remain under pressure. External positions look particularly vulnerable in Turkey, Hungary and Romania.

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