Commodities Weekly Rising risks to energy supply, but not time to overreact In a week that started with Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel and which ended with Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, it is somewhat surprising that the price of Brent crude fell. After all... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Baltimore tragedy not a major issue for energy flows The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP... 28th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Commodities Overview Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under... 12th March 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Cocoa prices could be close to a melting point The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets, rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices to stay hot through the holidays Cocoa prices neared a 45-year high in November on the back of concerns about supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Constrained supply alongside high seasonal demand will, in our view, continue to... 6th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+’s last stand The voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ this week will support oil prices in the first quarter of next year but there is clearly dissent among the ranks. We think OPEC+’s next move will be to... 1st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Overview Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the... 3rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly War and weather to drive prices in short term The conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to drive commodity prices this week. Oil prices fell back while gold prices defied the stronger dollar and held steady. Events in the Middle East will... 27th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Overview Chart Pack Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Prices will remain buffeted by weak global economic growth and a strong dollar, at a time of mounting supply risks and some policy stimulus in China. These conflicting pressures suggest that prices... 8th September 2023 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño unlikely to fire up the price of all staples El Niño is coming but the picture is more nuanced than one of doom and gloom for global production of all crop types. For corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, larger harvests in some regions can outweigh... 14th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 1689775200 The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events.