Fed will need to reverse course in 2020

Our confidence in our long-held view that a shifting policy mix will cause economic growth to slow in 2019 has only strengthened in recent months. The turmoil in markets suggests that others are finally catching on. As the fiscal stimulus fades and the lagged impact of monetary tightening intensifies, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2020.

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