IMF in focus

Argentina’s new government began official talks with the IMF over the future of its record-breaking bailout programme this month, and Lebanese policymakers appear to be warming to the idea of striking a deal with the Fund. But we don’t expect an imminent breakthrough in either case. Meanwhile, recent political developments in Ukraine underscore that it will be politically difficult for policymakers to implement the IMF’s reform programme. Accordingly, we think that last year’s rally in financial markets will continue to reverse.