EM GDP growth softening

The raft of Q2 GDP data released over the past month or so showed that aggregate EM GDP growth was actually a little stronger in Q2 than in Q1. However, more timely hard activity data for July and survey data for August suggest that EMs have lost some steam in Q3. Our EM GDP Tracker eased to a seven-month low of 4.5% y/y in July. The economies of Turkey and Argentina are both slumping amid this year’s currency crises. But elsewhere, GDP growth has been slowing more gradually and is likely to continue to do so over the rest of this year and 2019.