The sudden collapse in exports in November confirms that Asia is heading for a dramatic slowdown in 2009. With global demand for Asian goods set to weaken further in the months ahead, we expect GDP growth in Asia ex-Japan to slow to roughly 4.5% next year, from around 7.5% this year and an average of 8.3% over the last five years. That would be the weakest since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98. It will be little comfort that this leaves Asia relatively well-placed in a world facing its worst recession since the 1930s.
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