Assessing the impact so far

We still don’t have much in the way of hard data, but the figures that have been published so far suggest the coronavirus and the measures that China has taken to contain it, are having a severe economic impact. Tourist arrivals into Thailand have fallen by around 50% since the crisis began. Trade also looks to have been hit hard. Korean exports to and imports from China fell by 22% and 35% y/y respectively in the first 20 days of the month. Finally, consumer confidence in Korea in February suffered its largest drop in five years. We should start to get a clearer picture of how the region’s economies have been affected by the crisis next week, with the publication of February trade data for a number of countries as well as the PMIs.