Asian exporters have enjoyed a strong start to the year with continued healthy demand from elsewhere in the region and from Europe helping to offset slower growth of shipments to the US. But the US slowdown will have a more pronounced impact in the months ahead. Indeed, leading indicators are now consistent with outright falls in exports from some countries. Even if things don’t turn out quite that bad, a slow response from central banks, most of whom are still preoccupied with inflation, could result in a marked slowdown in growth in countries highly reliant on trade. We are revising down our GDP growth forecasts for Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore.
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