A vaccine would not transform the region’s prospects

The progress made towards the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 has been remarkable. Most experts now believe that a vaccine may be available by the end of this year or the first quarter of 2021. Although Asia has contained the coronavirus better than other parts of the world, Indonesia, the Philippines and India are important exceptions. An effective vaccine could be a way out of the crisis. However, a vaccine would not necessarily transform the immediate economic outlook for the region. Much would depend on the efficacy and longevity of the vaccine, how many people are willing to use it and the speed which it can be produced and distributed. Advanced countries have already pre-ordered significant stocks of different vaccines. Many low-income countries in Asia are likely to likely to be at the back of the queue for receiving an effective vaccine. Mass immunisation is still some way off. Countries which look to have eliminated the virus, such as Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam, will be very wary of re-opening their borders until this is achieved. The upshot is that the prospect of a vaccine being approved in the next six months or so does not justify a revision to our 2021 forecasts.