China Rapid Response China PMIs (Jan. 2026) The pickup in RatingDog services PMI for January only partially offsets the weakness in the official survey data. The big picture is still that the economy appears to have lost some momentum last... 2nd February 2026 (Updated 4th February 2026) · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy ended the year on a strong note, with GDP expanding by 3.8% y/y in Q4, up from a downwardly-revised 3.7% y/y in Q3. That brought growth for 2025 as a whole to 3.5% y/y, in-line... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2025) Although full-year growth came in at 5.0% y/y, in line with the government’s target, we estimate that the actual pace of economic expansion was at least 1.5%-pts weaker. The December activity data... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec. 2025) Credit growth in China continued to slow in December, as government bond issuance decelerated. Although the PBOC is signalling that policy rate cuts are on the horizon, this is unlikely to prevent... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Dec. 2025) Headline export growth rose to a three-month high, with shipments also jumping on a seasonally adjusted basis. We expect this resilience to continue through 2026, although exports will provide less of... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec. 2025) Headline CPI inflation edged up to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID, but this was due to a weather-related pickup in food prices rather than success of the “anti-involution”... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Dec. 2025) The decline in the RatingDog services PMI adds to evidence that momentum in the service sector remains weak, though this didn't prevent a slight improvement in the composite PMI. The partial recovery... 31st December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Nov. 2025) November data point to broad-based weakness in domestic activity, largely due to a pullback in fiscal spending. Policy support should help drive a partial recovery in the coming months, but this... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Credit data for November showed net new financing more than doubling. But that mostly reflects the usual seasonal pattern. To iron out that seasonality, we prefer to look at growth in outstanding... 12th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov. 2025) Consumer price inflation rose to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID (excluding volatility around Lunar New Year), but this was the result of a weather-related rise in food... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Nov. 2025) The tariff cuts agreed under the US-China trade truce didn’t help to lift shipments to the US last month, but overall export growth rebounded nonetheless. We think China’s exports will remain... 8th December 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Nov. 2025) The decline in the RatingDog services PMI adds to evidence that the economy continued to lose some momentum last month, with slower growth across both manufacturing and services. We expect growth to... 1st December 2025 (Updated 3rd December 2025) · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2025) The collapse in investment spending continued last month, though we still think it is likely to partially reverse before long. More worrying is that output-side measures of activity, which had held up... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Bank loan growth continued to weaken in October, with the consumer loan subsidy scheme failing to put a floor under household loan growth. Alongside the continued slowdown in government bond issuance... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Oct. 2025) Headline export growth slowed sharply last month. US tariffs remained a drag, but the latest slowdown was led by shipments to other markets, suggesting that the renminbi's recent trade-weighted... 7th November 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP growth delivered a strong upside surprise in Q3, picking up to 3.8% y/y, from 3.1% y/y in Q2 (the Bloomberg median was +2.9% and our forecast was +3.3 %). While that partly reflects a... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
