China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2025) The drop in the Caixin services PMI mirrors the fall in its official counterpart and provides further evidence that the trade war is weighing on economic activity in China, even beyond the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 2025) The meeting readout signalled that monetary policy easing is still on its way and that existing plans for fiscal spending will be accelerated. It stopped short of committing to additional deficit... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2025) China’s economy regained some momentum in March thanks to fiscal support, which helped the Q1 GDP figures beat expectations. Still, this wasn’t enough to deliver faster growth over the quarter as a... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Mar. 2025) Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of “Liberation Day”. But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters. We think it could... 14th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar. 2025) Bank loan growth accelerated for the first time in over two years last month, helping to take broad credit growth to a 10-month high. While some further gains are likely, we still expect a more modest... 14th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Deflationary pressures persisted last month and will almost certainly deepen over the coming quarters as it becomes more difficult for Chinese firms to export their excess supply. 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2025) The PMIs suggest that infrastructure spending is ramping up again and that exports have so far remained resilient in the face of US tariffs. But the surveys are still consistent with slower GDP growth... 31st March 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2025) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, likely due to a pullback fiscal borrowing. We expect a renewed pick-up later this year as fiscal support ramps up again. But any near-term... 17th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) While bank loan growth continued to slow to record lows in February, that was more than offset by stronger growth in non-bank credit. Strong government bond issuance should continue to provide a prop... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month for the first time in more than a year. While this was partly driven by the usual price volatility around Lunar New Year, the January-February... 10th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2025) Export growth cooled over the first two months of 2025, with tariff front-running providing less of a boost to demand than we had anticipated. This slowdown comes before any substantial hit from... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2025) The PMIs suggest that a combination of fiscal support and tariff front-running helped China’s economy regain some momentum in February. But growth still looks at risk of slowing this quarter, at least... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
