Speculative pressure can only push oil prices so far before fundamental demand and supply conditions reassert themselves, leading to a potentially sharp correction. We expect (Brent) crude oil prices...

This Update presents new (lower) forecasts for the dollar, but also reiterates our view that the US currency will stage a partial recovery in the second half of 2008 and into 2009.

The slump in the dollar is encouraging speculation that the ECB and the Bank of Japan will soon be ready to intervene in the markets to cap the strength of their own currencies. However, while the...

Martin Wolf’s column in today’s Financial Times draws attention to the surge in the Cleveland Fed’s liquidity-adjusted measure of market expectations for US inflation, derived from inflation-indexed...