Private credit funds have attracted growing scrutiny amid falling valuations and its exposure to software companies. Under a severe default scenario, losses might amount to around 0.4% of US GDP. That...

This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and...

This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here...

While EM financial markets have started to stabilise following the recent selloff, they are vulnerable to a further deterioration in risk sentiment. Markets in EMEA appear most exposed due to...