The US debt crisis will clearly dominate the agenda in the coming week, so it is worth summarising and expanding on the points we have made so far. In short, we continue to think that the Federal...

The dollar is initially likely to weaken further if the US loses its AAA credit rating. But we would still expect the US currency to rebound and end the year higher against the euro, sterling and yen.

We still think that the US government is unlikely to default on its debt. But if it did, the implications would potentially be far more serious than those that would follow a one or two notch...

A downgrade of US government debt would not necessarily be disastrous for Treasuries or the dollar, at least once the dust settled. However, it would be the starkest warning yet that the fall-out from...