The US stock market is ending 2011 with a whimper. The S&P 500 has fallen so far in December, and is fairly close to our year-end target of 1,200. While we do not expect equity prices to collapse next...

The US and European business cycles have become highly synchronised in recent decades. But this does not preclude significant economic divergence in response to major structural events. The last of...

The sharp drop in the US unemployment rate reported on Friday barely ruffled Treasuries. A few more months of such rosy news on the labour market would probably elicit a less sanguine response in the...

We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of a change to our assumption about the timing of an EMU break-up. The new numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are four main...