One reason why Fed tightening may not rattle the US stock market is that the price of equity is currently low compared to that of debt. Our forecast is that the S&P 500 will end next year at 2,200...

Despite the crisis in Greece the euro remains near multi-week highs against the dollar. Some have suggested that the euro has actually benefited from the uncertainty, due to the unwinding of short...

We have revised up our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 50bp each, to 3.0% and 3.5%. Our previous forecasts for the yield, which is now around 2.3%, had been based...

Fed tightening will probably be more aggressive than the market expects, but we do not expect it to trigger a re-run of the 1994 crash in EM financial markets.