We are revising our forecasts for US Treasuries in response to the possibility of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. We are, however, retaining our forecasts for the S&P 500.

The initial reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s victory has not been as large as we expected and many of the moves have now been largely unwound. Nonetheless, the rebounds that we have seen are...

A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In...

Whoever wins the US presidential election, the recent uneven performance of the US dollar is likely to continue. If – as seems increasingly likely – Hillary Clinton emerges victorious, we would expect...