Yesterday’s surge in the Conference Board’s index of US consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 is not, in our view, a reason to be positive about the outlook for the stock market. Our end-2017...

Emerging market (EM) equities have gained more ground, despite the Trump “reflation” trade in the US stock market faltering. But we doubt that they will continue to perform so well for long.

Although our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth in China’s economy has picked up significantly over the past year, we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as policy support is withdrawn...

Although Treasury yields have fallen back a bit after this week’s anticipated tightening of US monetary policy, we think that the bear market in bonds will resume soon. If history is a guide, the 10...