Credit spreads have risen as tensions between the US and North Korea have flared up. But the increase has been small and they are still low. We think that a downturn in the US economy is a more likely...

The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has weighed on the S&P 500. But provided that war is avoided, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn in the index.

Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), which triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Some are of the view that history may be about to...

US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself.