Our base case is that Treasury term premia – and yields – rise only a little further. But we think disruptive US trade policy, among other things, poses a threat to that view and, relatedly, to...

Despite Donald Trump cutting deals with Mexico and Canada, we are not backtracking from our revised view that the Fed will stay on the sidelines for the next six months. What’s more, if US tariffs end...

Notwithstanding negative FX returns and a challenging external backdrop brought about by Donald Trump’s agenda, we think Turkish bonds and equities will continue to perform relatively well in 2025, as...

The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could...