We forecast that the MSCI EMU Index will fall by another 13% this year as the US joins China and the euro-zone in an economic slowdown. Nonetheless, a resolution to the trade war could see equities in...

The surge in China’s mainland equity markets since the start of the year looks excessive, even allowing for renewed optimism about stimulus in China and the possibility of a US-China trade deal. Since...

We remain more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. But we still think that “risky” assets there will perform badly this year, as slowing global growth takes...

We have argued before that a limited US-China trade agreement ruling out further tariffs now appears largely priced in to markets. But the chances of a more comprehensive deal, including the roll-back...