While we are optimistic about the prospects for an AI-related boom in productivity over the next decade, it’s hard to tell whether the current pick-up in growth is a genuine structural acceleration or...

The apparent strength of third-quarter GDP growth won’t convince the Fed to resume hiking its policy rate, particularly with the ongoing surge in long-term bond yields presenting a growing threat to...

The ongoing outflow of funds from the Fed’s reverse repo facility has completely offset the downward pressure on bank reserves from quantitative tightening (QT), suggesting that the Fed could continue...

There appears to be growing support at the Fed for the idea that the recent sell-off in long-term Treasuries reduces the need for further policy rate hikes, but the more persuasive reason for the Fed...