The minutes from the last FOMC meeting at the start of this month strongly suggest that the Fed will launch a third round of quantitative easing at the upcoming meeting in mid-September. While QE3...

The annual growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates have slowed a little, but our own measure of M3, the broadest aggregate, is still growing at an annual rate of 4.5%.

Since the Fed signalled at the last FOMC meeting three weeks ago that it was poised to act, the incoming economic data have, somewhat ironically, suddenly started to improve. Despite the recent uptick...

The loss of corn and soybean crops caused by the drought may reduce annual GDP growth by less than 0.1%. The drought is therefore not a disaster for the wider economy. But it doesn’t help when the...