The Fed’s preferred PCE measure of core inflation could soon fall to around 1%. Together with the recent weakening in the tone of the incoming activity data, this may mean the Fed is less inclined to...

The boom in domestic energy production and the indirect benefits to the rest of the economy from lower natural gas prices have played only a minor role in the US economy's strong performance compared...

Despite the Fed’s continuing quantitative easing, the growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates have actually fallen over the past few months. The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest...

The slump in energy prices suggests that second-quarter GDP growth might not be as bad as we had initially feared when the incoming data for March proved to be unexpectedly weak.