We don’t place much weight on the idea that the Fed would be happy to leave interest rates at near-zero until wage growth returned to 4%. Instead, we believe that a pick-up in wage growth to between 2...

It will be a few months yet before we know for sure whether or not the recent pick-up in wage growth is just a temporary distortion caused by the unusually severe weather, but it does chime with the...

The Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare”, remains a contentious piece of legislation, but the fact of the matter is that it boosted real consumption growth in January and will probably support it in...

We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment...