The NFIB small business survey is more useful than the JOLTs survey since it tells us what is going to happen to labour market conditions rather than what has just happened. It suggests that payrolls...

There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there...

We are concerned that the ISM activity indices are painting a misleading picture of the strength of the economy. We’re inclined to place more faith in the Markit PMIs, which point to more realistic...

The US is still a large net importer of crude oil, so the recent collapse in oil prices will provide a net boost to real economic growth of about $150bn or 0.8% of GDP.