The decline in the unemployment rate to only 5.1% in August means that the Fed has arguably already achieved the full employment part of its dual mandate. If there is still any slack left in thel...

With less than two weeks to go until the next FOMC meeting, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rates this month are still close to 50-50. The US economic data remain strong, with the notable...

We are now assuming that, even if the rally in global stock markets continues, some Fed officials will still want to hold off on raising interest rates until October or even December. A September rate...

The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate rebounded to a robust 5.2% y/y in July, suggesting that there is little risk of a sustained deflation or a marked slowdown in real economic growth...