Our calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.0% annualised, largely thanks to a more modest 2.0% gain in consumption. The latter is hard to square with the continued...

Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a...

The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for...

The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock...