The recent weakness of new motor vehicle sales has been causing a bit of alarm, but there are good reasons to think that fears of a sudden collapse in demand will prove to be overblown. In any case...

The strength of most sentiment and activity surveys, despite the apparent weakness of first-quarter GDP growth, has led to a number of claims that we should put our trust in the so-called ‘hard’ data...

The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the...

The health care bill fiasco doesn’t necessarily alter our view on the prospect for tax cuts. We had already pushed back our forecast of both the potential size of any fiscal stimulus and its timing...