Whoever is leading the Fed next February, policy will be driven mostly by economic developments, which we think will prompt the FOMC to raise rates four times in 2018. But a new Chair, along with...

Even if the dollar doesn’t weaken any further, the 7% depreciation in trade weighted terms already seen this year will help support GDP growth via the resulting boost to exports. But the recent moves...

The recent pick-up in productivity growth is at least partly due to tighter conditions in the labour market, with the dwindling pool of the unemployed forcing firms to invest in additional...

The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys show that labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, while this is still not translating into significantly faster wage growth, it might finally be prompting...