The unexpectedly successful trade meeting between President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday has raised hopes that a much bigger trade war can be averted. Admittedly, the...

Recent trends in the survey evidence cast doubt on the idea that the Treasury yield curve is giving a misleading signal due to structural distortions. The curve may have steepened in recent days but...

The GDP data due next week are likely to show the economy expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter. Uncertainty over trade policy appears to be worrying some firms but, with little sign so far...

The Fed’s preference is to stick to the balance sheet normalisation plan it drew up last year, but we think a sharp economic slowdown will prompt the Fed to halt its balance sheet run-off in 2020. In...