The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC...

This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2...

The impact on prices of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports would be partly offset by a sharp drop in the peso. But the potential disruption to the motor vehicle industry, which relies on a continued flow...

We are now incorporating a further escalation in the trade war with China into our global forecasts. We think that will knock a few tenths off annual US GDP growth this year and next. Core PCE...