The latest polling and betting odds data suggest that Joe Biden is pulling ahead of Donald Trump in the race to win November’s Presidential election. Trump’s approval ratings have taken a hit from his...

The Fed’s balance sheet has started to shrink again, as the emergency liquidity measures deployed at the height of the crisis have started to wind down, the pace of Treasury purchases has slowed...

There was a large disconnect between the extent of the sizeable rebound in retail sales in May and the much more lacklustre recovery in manufacturing output last month. We expect the gap to close over...

The unexpected strength of the bounce-back in retail sales in May could mean that we are underestimating the potential for economic activity to return to pre-pandemic levels soon. Nevertheless...