Although the headline data show bank loans stagnant, that is mostly due to the forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program loans and mortgage securitisations, with the broader evidence pointing to an...

The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that...

The slightly disappointing second-quarter GDP data released this week and another dovish press conference from Chair Jerome Powell strengthen our belief that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its...

With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July.