In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with...

The sharp fall in job openings in August will be welcomed by the Fed as a sign that labour market conditions are starting to move back into balance. That won’t prevent further aggressive interest rate...

The revised GDP data released this week confirm the economy was already struggling ahead of the more recent tightening in financial conditions. Although surging exports appear to have driven a strong...

The Fed’s transformation from inflation-denier back to Volcker-style inflation-slayer is all but complete. As Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his press conference this week, “we have got to get...